What is the importance of forecasting disasters ?

While it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of disasters, it is certainly possible to reduce the resultant disastrous effects through adequate preparedness and timely action. The effectiveness of timely action is greatly enhanced through accurate forecasts and prompt warnings. Herein lies the importance and significance of forecasts and warnings of disasters. However, it is to be noted that forecasting and warning are possible only for those disasters, which have some inherent predictability.

The need for disaster preparedness plan is self-evident. National and international experience mostly indicates that where plans did not exist or planning was-inadequate, the ill effects of disasters have been worse than would have otherwise been the case. A senior disaster management official is said to have remarked after a recent cyclone: “When we look back on the cyclone and what it did to our country, there is no doubt that hundreds of people are alive here today because we had proper disaster plans”.

A disaster preparedness plan essentially contains measures to be taken before, during and after disaster strikes. It contains an inventory of what materials are available where and with whom, and the delegation of responsibilities and coordination mechanisms among various government officials and departments. It gives location of temporary shelters and guidelines about partnerships with other bodies like NGOs, social workers and international agencies. Thus, in an emergency situation, authorities have a ready guide at hand and are fully aware of the steps to be taken. Creating awareness among the people and preparing the communities to deal with anticipated situations are the most important objectives of a disaster preparedness plan. Disaster Preparedness Plans also contain certain long-term, wide-ranging measures to be carried out. It includes measures like construction of embankments along rivers, retrofitting of houses, periodic inspection of critical river stretches, establishing a system of communication, construction of relief centres, and land use measures.

A plan has to be practical if it has to succeed. For this purpose, it needs to be reviewed carefully at periodic intervals and amended as necessary in the light of the experience gained. Competent plan execution by the administration has numerous advantages. It ensures that development and disaster preparedness do not disturb each other but complement each other. It also ensures that, should disaster strike, the time taken to return to normalcy is minimized and that loss of life and property is minimum.