What are the causes of Disequilibrium?

Causes of Disequilibrium

Various causes of disequilibrium in the balance of payments or adverse balance of payments are as follows:

1. Development Schemes:

The main reason for adverse balance of payments in the developing countries is the huge investment in development schemes in these countries. The propensity to import of the developing countries increases for want of capital for industrialization. The exports, on the other hand, may not increase because these countries are traditionally primary producing countries. Moreover the volume of exports may fall because newly created domestic industries may need them. All this leads to structural changes in the balance of payment resulting in structural disequilibrium.

2. Price-Cost Structure:

Changes in price-cost structure of export industries affect the volume of exports and create disequilibrium in the balance of payments. Increase in prices due to higher wages, higher cost of raw materials, etc. reduces exports and makes the balance of payments unfavorable.

3. Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates:

Changes in the rate of exchange is another cause of disequilibrium in the balance of payments. An increase in the external value of money makes imports cheaper and exports dearer; thus, imports increase and exports fall and balance of payments become unfavourable. Similarly, a reduction in the external value of money leads to a reduction in imports and an increase in exports.

4. Fall in Export Demand:

There has been a considerable decline in (he export demand for the primary goods of the underdeveloped countries as a result of the large increase in the domestic production of foodstuffs raw materials and substitutes in the rich countries. Similarly, the advanced countries also find a fall in their export demand because of loss of colonial markets. However, the deficit in the balance of payment due to the fall in export demand is more persistent in the underdeveloped countries than in the advanced countries.

5. Demonstration Effect:

According to Nurkse, the people in the less developed countries tend to follow the consumption patterns of the developed countries. As a result of this demonstration effect, the imports of the less developed countries will increase and create disequilibrium in the balance of payments.

6. International Borrowing and Lending:

International borrowing and lending is another reason for the disequilibrium in the balance of payments. The borrowing country tends to have unfavourable balance of payments, while the lending country tends to have favourable balance of payments.

7. Cyclical Fluctuations:

Cyclical fluctuations cause cyclical disequilibrium in the balance of payments. During depression, the incomes of the people in foreign countries fall. As a result, the exports of these countries tend to decline which, in turn, produces disequilibrium in the home country’s balance of payment.

8. Newly Independent Countries:

The newly independent countries, in order to develop international relations, incur huge amounts of expenditure on the establishment of embassies, missions, etc. in other countries. This adversely affects the balance of payments position.

9. Population Explosion:

Another important reason for adverse balance of payments in the poor countries is population explosion. Rapid growth of population in countries like India increases imports and decreases the capacity to export.

10. Natural factors:

Natural calamities, such as droughts, floods, etc., adversely affect the production in the country. As a result, the exports fall, the imports increase and the country experiences deficit in its balance of payments.