Some scholars in the eighteenth century observed the relationship between the potentiality of population growth and available resources, and arrived at the conclusion that the potentialities of human population growth might surpass the resources required for its support.

Benjamin Franklin published his observations in 1755. The Chinese writer, Hung Liang-Chi, noted that an increase in the means of subsistence was not in direct proportion to that of the population in the eighteenth century.

These observations, however, did not attract much attention. In 1798, the publication of the essay entitled, “An Essay on the Principles of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet and other Writers” by Thomas R. Malthus (1766-1834), a young clergyman, attracted a great deal of attention and gave rise to much controversy.

The main theme of this essay was that while man could increase his subsistence only in arithmetical progression, his numbers tended to increase in geometrical progression. Population growth was, therefore, to be regarded as the principal cause of poverty.

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Research in the field of fertility was sporadic during most of the nineteenth century. There were several reasons for this. In the first place, the social motivation for the study of fertility was not strong. Birth rates were not as high as in Asian countries and therefore did not cause any concern.

Because of agricultural development, the production of food supplies increased at a much higher rate than population. Fertility differentials were not very conspicuous; there were no fluctuations in the birth rate, nor were there any visible trends in its decline.

It was in France that fertility first started declining towards the end of the eighteenth century a decline which continued even in the nineteenth century. The Chief Statistician General of France commented in 1847 that he considered the moderate fertility of French families as “the indicator of intellectual progress, order and foresight.”

Concern regarding the declining French fertility arose in France only after her defeat by Prussia in 1870. Gradually, throughout Europe, interest was generated in the problem of fertility decline and fertility differentials.