Deterrence theory is a military strategy developed during the Cold War. It is especially relevant with regard to the use of nuclear weapons, and figures prominently in current United States foreign policy regarding the development of nuclear technology in North Korea and Iran.

Less formally, the term refers to any party who, in an attempt to discourage conflict, broadcasts to potential aggressors a willingness to respond to any attacks with a counter-attack of equal or greater magnitude. Philosophically, such a strategy would be the opposite of appeasement.

Deterrence is a strategy by which governments threaten an immense retaliation if attacked, such that aggressors are deterred if they do not wish to suffer great damage as a result of an aggressive action. Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), conventional weapons strength, economic sanctions, or any combination of these can be used as deterrents.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is a form of this strategy, which came to prominence during the Cold War when it was used by the US to characterize relations between the United States and Soviet Union. Both nations were prepared to fight a full scale nuclear and conventional war, but were not willing to risk the carnage of a full scale nuclear war.

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Deterrence by denial is a strategy whereby a government builds up or maintains defense and intelligence systems with the purported aim of neutralizing or mitigating attacks. Aggressors are deterred if they choose not to act, perceiving the cost of their action to be too high in relation to its likelihood of success.

Deterrence theory is criticized for its assumptions about opponent rationales: first, it is argued that suicidal or psychotic opponents may not be deterred by either forms of deterrence. Second, if Country “X” were to launch nuclear weapons at Country “Y”, managing to destroy many nuclear launch silos in a preemptive strike, Country “Y” would be rendered defenseless, thus finding a loophole in the theory.

Third, diplomatic misunderstandings and/or opposing political ideologies may lead to escalating mutual perceptions of threat, and a subsequent arms race which elevates the risk of actual war (this scenario is illustrated in the movies War Games and Dr. Strangelove). An arms race is inefficient in its optimal output; all countries involved expend resources on armaments which would not have been expended if the others had not expended resources. This is a form of positive feedback.

Finally, a military build-up could increase a country’s risks of budget deficits, restrictions of civil liberties, the creation of a military-industrial complex, and other such potentially-undesirable measures.