2 important factors for forecasting future needs of manpower
In addition to current trends, the human resources planning should take into consideration of future needs of manpower in terms of Demand and supply of manpower.
Robert Kreitner, spells out the following factors to be considered for forecasting Demand and supply of manpower:-
A. Forecasting Demand:
a. Anticipating growth of organisation this growth rate can be from past trends on the assumption that all variable affecting growth will remain constant.
b. Budget constraints and allocations the budget allocation specifically for the purpose of new employees will determine the number of number of new workers that can hired, thus putting a ceiling on the maximum number.
c. Anticipated turnover in personnel due to retirement, death, transfers, termination of service, promotions etc. Most of these changes can be calculated in advance thus making the forecasting of future demand easier and more accurate.
d. Introduction of new technology with continuous technological developments, innovation and automation, the personnel needs are constantly changing. At many places, computers are either replacing workers or reducing their numbers. The type of new technology introduced will determine the number of people that may be hired or transferred.
e. Minority hiring goals the goals of hiring minorities and handicapped as a part of the affirmative action policies may affect the demand for total number of employees, especially when it is difficult to match the skilled or unskilled minority workers to the specific jobs requirements.
B. Forecasting Supply:
a. Promotions of employees from within the organisation promotions are a good and reliable source of supply of experienced and skilled personnel, who do not need to be extensively trained and who are also familiar with the organisation goals, policies and philosophy.
b. Availability of required talent in the external labour market this may be assessed by unemployment figures, a survey of private and public employment agencies and other sources.
c. Competition for talent within the industry if the competition is very tough then it will be more difficult to tap the supply and the cost of additional workers will, become very high in the competitive industry, then the supply with remain flexible.
d. Population movement trends the demographical changes will also affect the sources of supply. If there is a tendency for people to move from rural areas to urban areas then the supply in the rural areas will dry up. Similarly, most new immigrants from outside have a tendency to settle in cities, thus increase the supply in the urban areas.
e. Enrolment trends in vocational schools, colleges and universities if there is marked increase in the number of students in training programme as well as colleges, this will improve the supply of skilled personnel and personnel with specialized educational backgrounds. On the other hand, due to high cost of education, there may be a decline in college enrolment signifying a trend in scarcity of educated people.