The theory of demographic transition is widely accepted as a useful aid in describing demographic history. Its contribution is, however, considered to be of limited value.

Several questions are raised in this context: Can this theory provide theoretical explanation of the forces that caused demographic changes, especially as they related to fertility?

Does it have any predictive; value? In other words, can it be used for predicting the sequence; through which developing countries would pass? Such questions have inevitably led to a great deal of unfavourable criticism of the theory of demographic transition.

It is to be noted that this theory is based on the actual experience of the changes in the vital rates in Western countries during the various stages of their industrial and economic development.

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The critics of this theory, however, point out that the experiences of the various European countries were not uniform, m the sense that the sequences of the stages as described in the statement of the theory were not the same.

Recent studies reveal that, in Spain and in some countries of Eastern and Southern Europe, fertility decline occurred even when mortality was very high.

In some countries like the Unite-d States, the growth rate in the post-transition stage was probably higher than in Stage II Stage III of the demographic transition. Note stein’s claim the fertility declined initially in urban areas is found to be untrue to some countries.

For instance, countries with predominantly retaliations, such as France, Sweden, Finland, Bulgaria, did experience declines in birth rates to the same extent as did some highly urbanised countries, such as England and Wales.

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Such exceptions suggest that the theory of demographic transition is only a broad generalisation, which does not encompass the experiences of even all the Western countries.

This theory also cannot explain the phenomenon of “the baby boom” in Western countries after the economic recovery and the Second World War.

Another criticism of this theory arises out of the fact that it does not provide a theoretical explanation of an important force, viz., fertility, which brought about the demographic transition.

Though it is a fact that fertility did decline in all the Western countries, the conditions under which it declined were diverse. Demographers have recently arrived at the conclusion that the decline in fertility in Europe is a very complex phenomenon which has not yet been fully understood.

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David Glass, the British demographer, despairingly points out that even the English people do not have an adequate knowledge of their own demographic transition.

It has, moreover, been asserted that the theory of demographic transition cannot really be called a “theory,” for its does not fulfill an important criterion of any theory, that is, to extract fundamental processes from a phenomenon and identify crucial variables.

This theory does not provide fundamental explanations of fertility decline, nor does it identify the crucial variables involved in the process of the fertility decline. Therefore, it does not have any predictive value.

In all fairness, it must be mentioned at this point that Note stein, who propounded this theory, was aware of its limitations. Nonetheless, he was of the opinion that the principle drawn from the European experience would be applicable to other parts of the world.

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The most crucial question to be considered is: “Can the theory demographic transition be applied to developing countries?” It is well known that developing countries have recently experienced a phenomenal reduction in death rates, as a result of which there has en a tremendous increase in the rates of population growth.

This rapidly increasing population is an obstacle in the path programmes of the developing countries, which are making concentrated efforts to eliminate poverty and to rise of living for the masses by launching large-scale plans for economic development, industrialisation and modernisation.

In such a situation, it may be asked will these countries have to wait for economic and social development till they bring down the birth rate and bring about a reduction in the growth rate.

According to the theory of demographic transition, the reduction in the birth rate is a by-product of industrialisation and modernisation. In the face of a very rapidly increasing population, however, it is not possible to wait for industrialisation and modernisation to bring about the required reduction in fertility.

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Many developing countries have, therefore, adopted family planning programmes directly geared to influence fertility negatively.

In such a situation, it is difficult to maintain with any degree of confidence that the theory of demographic transition is also applicable to developing countries and that what happened in the West, in respect of population growth, would be duplicated in developing countries.

Thus, in the strictest sense of the term the theory of demographic transition cannot really be considered as a theory, though it does provide a satisfactory framework and means for wider empirical generalisations.